Susanne Hornikel takes a look back over the past ten years, to help predict where the future might be for European marketers.

What does the future hold for direct marketers? Will there be a return to the traditional catalogue or mailing, or even more growth for the online domain?

And what does this mean for European users and service providers, in times that are still characterised by difficult economic constraints? Looking back to the past may help to predict the future.

In March 2000, the impact of the dotcom boom and bust was felt. The burst bubble particularly affected the so-called dotcom companies of the new economy and, above all, caused a significant loss of assets for small investors, especially in industrialised countries. 

New technological developments such as the worldwide spread of the Internet, the entry of the mobile phone into daily life and the development of handheld computers increased the profit expectations of companies and investors indefinitely.

It was inevitable the bubble would burst, since the stock market value of the highly-rated dotcom companies showed no relation to the material    counter value.

Traditional direct marketers’ assumptions were affirmed and so they continued to use their original advertising methods, such as catalogues and mailings.

Going global

However, the increasing internationalisation of brands and offerings gradually pushed the ‘pure players’ starting to merchandise their products and services via web shops. Consequently, they could react more quickly to current events and customer expectations.

Thus, more and more web shops opened, to supply not only local customers but those all over Europe.

These changes also forced traditional mail order companies to review their strategies and adapt new overall plans – as well as their view of ‘multi-channelling’. 

Now, it is the customer who decides when and through which channel he wants to do the shopping. Today, the customer has more choice than ever, since he can select via a product comparison on the Internet or an order by phone or shopping in a boutique.

Shopping for bargains

The last decade also popularised eBay. This current top-selling provider of Internet auctions has nearly 300 million registered members worldwide and a trading volume of around 60 billion US dollars. In January 2008, there were more than 516,000 eBay stores.

The trend towards ‘bargain shopping’ has also been adopted by several other companies. 

Whether it is BuyVIP or Vente Privée, the sales events of selected brands magically attract consumers. And this is an attractive and acceptable possibility for mail order companies looking to dispose of their surplus in large quantities. 

Since 2004, the so-called social media have been becoming increasingly popular. In business or in private, there is the right platform for everyone. 

If one decides to join Facebook or Xing it is not just personal taste, but very often a matter of geography: the popularity of different networks varies from country to country. 

Twitter initially started in America in 2006 and then gradually became known in Europe over the following years.

This social network is similar to a publicly viewable diary in which brief information, ideas and experiences appear and are exchanged in ‘micro-blogs’. 

Objective reviews

Of course, direct marketing companies hope to exploit these trends and become active and present in social networks. 

That this does not necessarily work is mostly due to the users . . . they expect objective information and reviews from other consumers and there is no demand for advertising and promotion.

A similar experience can be seen among those mail order companies which allow customer reviews on their websites: companies which only publish positive reviews and plaudits will lose their authenticity sooner or later, since reviews should be moderated, but not censored. 

Focus of attention

Direct marketers may be heading into a new decade, but the age-old question is still important: How can I get my offer to grab the attention of those customers who are affluent and most likely to order? 

Only a good mix of all media  will bring the correct solution. This is what companies must consider in the new decade: The customer is more than ever the focus of attention – not in a customer group, whose purchase behaviour can be given  a common denominator through different variables, but as an individual, who is constantly spurred by all media. And thus requires our flexibility and presence across all channels.